Disclaimers
Clear expectations for what these tools do, how the calculations work, and what they don’t model.
Not financial advice
These tools are for educational purposes only. They are not financial, tax, or legal advice. You are responsible for verifying decisions with qualified professionals.
How the planner calculates
Retirement number — Your savings target, calculated as 25× your annual expenses (the 4% rule). This is the point where a 4% annual withdrawal covers your costs indefinitely under average market conditions.
Range of Outcomes — Rather than a single projected path, the planner runs 500 simulated market scenarios using log-normal returns. The shaded band on the chart shows the middle 80% of possible outcomes; the bright line is the most likely path. All values are shown in today’s dollars, adjusted for 3% annual inflation.
Market scenarios — Three growth assumptions drive the simulation:
- Bear (conservative): 5% while working, 3% in retirement, 12% annual volatility
- Base (moderate): 8% while working, 5% in retirement, 10% annual volatility
- Bull (optimistic): 11% while working, 7% in retirement, 14% annual volatility
Social Security — Expected monthly benefits offset portfolio withdrawals from your chosen claiming age. Benefits are inflation-adjusted in the projection.
What the planner does not model: taxes, contribution limits (401k, IRA), means-tested benefit reductions, healthcare costs in retirement, or personalized risk tolerance. These factors can materially change your actual outcomes.
Simplifying assumptions
- Log-normal return distributions are an approximation. Real markets have fatter tails — crashes and booms more extreme than the model expects.
- Inflation is modeled at a flat 3% annually. Actual inflation varies.
- The 25× retirement number (4% rule) is a guideline, not a guarantee. It held historically but may not in all future market environments.
- Social Security figures are self-reported — not verified against SSA records. Use ssa.gov for your actual estimate.
- Taxes, contribution limits, healthcare costs, and means-tested benefit reductions are not modeled and can materially change your outcomes.
- Program rules (withdrawal ages, Social Security, etc.) can change; verify current rules for your situation.
Privacy approach
- No login required. Your data never leaves your device — stored in your browser’s localStorage only.
- Nothing is sent to a server except chat and voice messages during an active assistant session, which are not stored after the conversation ends.
- Analytics (if enabled) are aggregated and non-identifying.
How to use responsibly
- Run all three scenarios. Bear shows what happens if markets underperform; Bull shows the upside. The gap between them is your real uncertainty range.
- Pay attention to the “Likelihood your money lasts to 100” percentage — a low number signals meaningful longevity risk even in the most likely path.
- Use results to generate better questions for a financial professional, not as final answers.